COVID-19; PANDEMIC; CAUTION
9 JUNE 2023
It's almost three and a half years since a seemingly limited virus in Wuhan, China first appeared, and ended up changing the world as we knew it.
In this BALANCER, we look at the current state of COVID-19 in New Zealand and worldwide, through the statistics and trends available - but also ask, how reliable is that data now?
INTRODUCTION
It's safe to say that midway through 2023, we're all a lot less worried about COVID-19. Mask-wearing is minimal, as is social distancing, and COVID-19 - as an illness and as a way of life - is definitely a different beast to what it was.
What's not safe though is to completely forget about it, because 'the virus which changed everything' is still around and still poses a risk.
Last month, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that COVID-19 would no longer be categorised as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).
However the WHO's Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus also had this reminder:
A WORD ABOUT DATA
The information used in this Balancer comes from Our World in Data at the University of Oxford.
It in turn sources its data from the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Dashboard.
Our World in Data has a stated mission of publishing "research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems" and provides some of the most in-depth and comprehensive data sets on COVID-19.
BUT HOW ACCURATE IS THE DATA?
This is the problem we now face when trying to understand COVID-19 in 2023 - a point alluded to by Dr. Tedros when he said "and that's just the deaths that we know about".
Data for new cases is not being provided as regularly, and the widespread use of rapid tests at home means the accuracy and usefulness of the data we DO have has declined.
WHAT ABOUT THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY COVID TRACKER?
Johns Hopkins University (JHU) created one of the leading round-the-clock trackers of COVID-19 data and trends.
It was regularly used by news organisations as a visual representation of the most up-to-date 'snapshot' of the pandemic (see picture below).
JHU decided to stop collecting data as of 10 March 2023. Its archive however is still online:
Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard
LATEST GLOBAL NUMBERS
This is the 7-day rolling average of DAILY NEW CONFIRMED CASES GLOBALLY.
At the end of May 2023, there were 25,633 new cases per day.
The peak was on 25 December 2022, with approximately 6.41 million.
This is the 7-day rolling average of DAILY NEW CONFIRMED DEATHS GLOBALLY.
They've been generally trending down since a peak of 14,674 deaths per day on 24 January 2021.
At the end of May 2023, the number was down to 133.
LATEST NEW ZEALAND NUMBERS
In New Zealand, the 'skyscraper skyline' effect towards the end of the graph reflects the fact that numbers are only now released weekly.
This is the 7-day rolling average of DAILY NEW CONFIRMED CASES IN NEW ZEALAND.
At the start of June, there was an average of 1,626 new cases per day.
The peak was on 7 March 2022 at 20,468 following the reopening of New Zealand's border.
This is the 7-day rolling average of DAILY NEW CONFIRMED DEATHS IN NEW ZEALAND.
The most recent data is an average of 7 deaths (reported weekly).
The peak was 35 on 26 July 2022.
NEW ZEALAND WASTEWATER TESTING
Another testing method involves collecting wastewater. Samples have a mixture of toilet, sink, and drain wastewater from sites around the country.
A positive test means at least one person has been shedding COVID-19 into the wastewater in the 24 hours before the sample was collected.
This graph from the week ending 28 May shows the large discrepancy between wastewater cases and reported cases.
And in the following week ending 4 June, wastewater cases have risen by a million - an increase of 45.2%.
But reported cases have gone down from 1,900 to 1,700 - a drop of 10.5%
THIS SHOWS HOW ERRATIC AND INACCURATE THE DATA CAN BE
According to Beth Blauer from the Public Sector Innovation department at Johns Hopkins University:
"The hospitalization data collected and reported by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is now the most reliable and complete data remaining for use in public health decisions and policymaking.
This is valuable, but insufficient to fully track and understand the pandemic; we are concerned about the persistent, across-the-board declines in the quality and availability of COVID-19 data."
WHAT IS DEFINED AS A 'COVID DEATH'?
THIS GUIDANCE IS FOLLOWED IN THE U.S. and THE UK
- If a doctor suspects COVID-19 played a role in a death, it should be specified on the death certificate.
- If COVID-19 led to complications like pneumonia or Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome, then it is considered an underlying cause and should still be listed on the death certificate - even though it wasn't the direct cause.
- A positive COVID-19 test is not necessarily needed for a death to be registered as a COVID-19 death.
For example, in the United States, a woman had COVID-19 symptoms five days before suffering a stroke. She wasn't tested for COVID-19, but the coroner concluded that it was likely to be the underlying cause - on account of her symptoms, and exposure to someone else who was infected.
But even the World Health Organization acknowledges the picture is incomplete.
This is how much the WHO believes deaths were underestimated in the first year of the pandemic:
WHERE TO FROM HERE?
The consensus from medical professionals and and epidemiologists seems to be that people shouldn't just forget about COVID-19, even though it's being viewed and treated as a more common or everyday illness.
In downgrading the status of COVID-19, Dr. Tedros still said:
"The worst thing any country could do now is to use this news as a reason to let down its guard, to dismantle the systems it has built, or to send the message to its people that COVID-19 is nothing to worry about.
What this news means is that it's time for countries to transition from emergency mode, to managing COVID-19 alongside other infectious diseases.
If need be, I will not hesitate to convene another emergency committee should COVID-19 once again put our world in peril."
MORE READING
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25 MAY 2023
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New Zealand Doctor
28 APRIL 2023
ESR Wastewater Surveillance Dashboard
Institute of Environmental Science and Research (NZ)