It's a little under a month until New Zealand's general election, and quite rightly there's a lot of focus on the future political direction of the country.
In this BALANCER, we look back on the voting patterns Kiwis have produced over 54 general elections, and where (or if) those trends point to anything in 2023.
A two-party nation, or a multi-party democracy?
As it heads towards its tenth general election since the introduction of proportional representation (MMP), New Zealand could fairly be considered either - or both.
Only once in those nine votes has a single party been able to govern alone, meaning the smaller parties have had a crucial role to play in the formation of a government.
But at the front of the pack, it's always that two-horse race - Labour and National, left and right, red and blue.
(PLEASE NOTE: this Balancer has no intent to analyse the current state of politics in New Zealand, nor attempt to forecast what the election result may be. We'll leave that to the experts - or at least, those brave enough to be in the election prediction business!)
ACT New Zealand
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand
New Zealand First 2023 Committments
New Zealand First
New Zealand Labour Party
National's plan to get our country back on track
New Zealand National Party
Te Pāti Māori
The above is a now-famous quote from former National leader and then-Prime Minister Jim Bolger after the 1993 election.
It had been expected - and forecast - that National would win the election comfortably. Instead there was a hung parliament on Election Night, and National only just managed to form the next Government.
Bolger's inference was that, in the end, the opinion polls can count for nothing - and, to coin a phrase, the only poll which counts is the one on Election Day.
Pre-election polls only give us a snapshot of the electorate on any one given day, and by their very nature are backwards-looking.
But over time, they do show us trends.
Here is a party vote "poll of polls" - an aggregation of several opinion polls - starting in January 2021:
The Conversation
3 JANUARY 2023
MMP seat allocation calculator
New Zealand Electoral Commission
New Zealand voters search for relief from ‘shocking’ living costs as election looms
The Guardian
15 SEPTEMBER 2023